SSCI,《Technological  Forecasting & Social Change(IF=3.815).  2019, 148, 119720


Exploring  the spatiotemporal changes of ecological carrying capacity for regional  sustainable development based on GIS: A case study of Nanchang City  

Yafen  He, Hualin Xie 1


Institute  of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,  Nanchang 330013, China

 

Abstract:Using  Nanchang City as an example, this paper first simulates the distribution of  regional populations based on land use data and demographic data in 2012. Then,  the ecological footprint method is used to evaluate the ecological carrying  capacity (ECC) of Nanchang city at a city, county and grid scale, respectively.  Based on the grid-scale assessment method, the ECC of Nanchang city was  evaluated separately for 2000, 2005 and 2010, and the spatiotemporal changes in  ECC during 2000 –2012 were comprehensively analysed. The result shows that the  difference of ECC is 0.835, indicating an ecological deficit (ED) at the city  scale in 2012. When evaluated at the county level, urban districts are  characterized by EDs, while all counties evaluated are characterized by  eco-logically sensitive (Es). At the grid-scale, the ED zone, ecological surplus  (ES) zone, ecologically balance (EB) zone and Es zone can all be seen on the  map. From 2000 to 2012, the most obvious change in ECC was in the range of the  ED zone, which expanded gradually from the city centre in 2000 to a wider range  in 2012. Finally, policy suggestions are proposed, including improving urban  land use efficiency, implementing scientific planning landscape patterns and  improving the ecological responsibility of stakeholders.

Keywords:  Ecological carrying capacity; Regional sustainable development; GIS; Ecological  footprint; Population distribution simulation