SCI期刊《Land Degradation & Development》, Volume33, Issue10,June 2022,Pages 1564-1578
Regulation simulation of land-use ecological security, based on a CA model and GIS: A case-study in Xingguo County, China
Hualin Xie,Zhenhong Zhu,Yafen He
Institute of Ecological Civilization, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China
Abstract
Ecological land is constantly modified by agriculture and construction, which leads to soil erosion, land degradation, soil pollution flood disasters, and many other land ecological security problems, threatening sustainable development. Few studies have been made to construct a land-use ecological security pattern (LUESP) aimed at achieving urban expansion, food security, and ecological security from the perspective of land-use needs. This study seeks to provide decision makers with the choice of multi-scenario LUESPs by simulating the LUESP under different scenarios, offering a reasonable land-use ecological security regulation strategy. In this paper, the ecological security evaluation method was used to identify key ecological space of a study area and the scenario analysis method was used to set up three security scenarios: ideal security (IS) scenario, satisfactory security (SS) scenario, and bottom-line security (BS) scenario, thereby constructing the constrained cellular automata (CA) model of the LUESP and simulating the LUESPs under three security scenarios for Xingguo County, China. The results showed that the LUESP construction land index and arable land index did not exceed the total amount of the General Plan of Land Use in Xingguo County under the three security scenarios. Moreover, both key ecological space loss and landscape fragmentation degree were greatly reduced, the ecological patches tend to cluster, and the anti-jamming ability of the landscape pattern was enhanced. The ranking of LUESPs under three security scenarios was as follows: BS scenario > SS scenario > IS scenario. These results implied that the LUESPs met the demand for land in Xingguo County for ecological security, food security, and economic development, while space occupied is different under three security scenarios. The decision makers can adopt appropriate land-use ecological security regulation strategies according to the future development plans of the region.